Does Trump’s Greenland gambit mean an end of NATO? Here’s what experts say

Could US President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland — by purchase or force — mark a breaking point for NATO’s 77-year-old alliance?

A growing number of experts and political figures believe it could.

Trump said on Saturday that NATO countries that have deployed small contingents of troops to Greenland would face a 10% tariff on all goods exported to the United States starting February 1.

The countries affected include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland.

According to the president, those tariffs would rise to 25% from June 1 and remain in place until the US is able to purchase Greenland.

The new volley of tariffs has enraged the European Union, which is already weighing retaliatory tariffs on American goods.

“Tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral,” the leaders of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland have said in a joint statement.

“We are committed to upholding our sovereignty.

Earlier this month, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that a US attack on a NATO ally could spell the end of the alliance itself.

“If the United States decides to militarily attack another NATO country, then everything would stop — that includes NATO and therefore post-Second World War security,” Frederiksen told Danish broadcaster TV2.

Trump’s decision to escalate pressure through tariffs has prompted renewed warnings from analysts that NATO’s credibility is being undermined even without military action.

Article 5 credibility questioned

Steven N. Durlauf, professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, said the threat alone could represent a fundamental rupture.

“Regardless of whether the threat works, it represents the de facto end of NATO as an alliance,” Durlauf wrote on X.